Meteorologist Ben Dery, left, of KARE-11 TV, discussed forecasting with Jeff Sauressig, right, a Chisago Lakes High School teacher and event moderator, at The Historic Auditorium in St. Croix Falls. – Photo by Sarah Beth Radomsky
ST. CROIX FALLS – Meteorologist Ben Dery of KARE-11 TV spoke to a packed crowd at The Historic Auditorium in St. Croix Falls on Sunday, March 2, during at an event hosted by the Main Street Voices group. The free public gathering, which required RSVPs, drew weather enthusiasts, students and locals eager to hear Dery unpack the science of forecasting, the impact of climate change and the role of technology in meteorology.
Moderated by Jeff Sauressig, a science teacher from Dery’s alma mater, Chisago Lakes High School, the afternoon blended storytelling with technical insights. Dery, a St. Cloud State University graduate with a meteorology degree and a minor in mass communications, walked attendees through the intricate process of predicting weather. He highlighted tools like radar, satellites, surface stations and upper-air data from National Weather Service balloons launched twice daily. These feed into numerical weather prediction models—complex algorithms rooted in calculus and physics––that forecast conditions days in advance.
Artificial intelligence took center stage as Dery discussed its growing role in meteorology. While traditional models rely on costly supercomputers, AI-driven machine learning models analyze historical weather data to produce faster, cheaper forecasts. However, he cautioned that AI struggles with extreme events, as it relies on past patterns and may not predict unprecedented conditions accurately. Still, Dery sees AI enhancing how meteorologists communicate forecasts, simplifying complex data into understandable ways for the public.
“I think we’re always going to prefer the human touch,” he said, “but AI will help us tell the weather story better.”
Climate change and preparedness were key themes. Dery emphasized the increasing unpredictability of weather patterns, urging attendees to stay informed. He noted that while natural variability drives some extremes, like Minnesota’s record-breaking hailstone the size of his head last year, climate change was what he called “loading the meteorological dice” for more frequent severe events. Drawing from his education, he explained how a warming atmosphere holds more moisture, potentially intensifying storms.
Dery also clarified the difference between weather and climate, saying “Weather is what you experience day-to-day, sunny, rainy, snowy. Climate is the accumulation of all those events over time.” He likened climate to a person walking a zigzagging dog on a leash, with weather as the dog’s erratic movements.
Reflecting on his career, Dery shared that meteorology offers diverse paths beyond TV, from climatology to National Weather Service roles. His broadcast journey began at St. Cloud State’s college TV station, where he honed skills to translate complex science for viewers. At KARE-11, he collaborates with fellow meteorologists to craft forecasts distinct from those of the National Weather Service, which issues official warnings.
When asked what he thought was the hardest part of the job, “Telling somebody it’s going to rain on their wedding day,” Dery quipped, though he admitted “busted forecasts,” such as a hyped Duluth snowstorm that fizzled into just an inch are the worst. “We take it to heart and look back to see what went wrong.”
Organized by the St. Croix Unitarian Universalist Fellowship, who describe themselves as a progressive faith community, the event was sponsored by Sapphire Realty, Chateau St. Croix Winery and locals Meg Luhrs and Leif Bjornson. Attendees left with a deeper appreciation for the science behind their daily forecasts, and a reminder from Dery to brace for a potential spring storm arriving the next Tuesday. “Five-day forecasts are pretty legit,” he said. “Beyond that, we’re forecasting trends, not certainties.”
